Education
Ph.D., Stony Brook
University, Political
Science, (expected 2012).
Dissertation: "The Effect of Politics and the Media on the
Macroeconomy."
Examination Fields: American Politics, Methodology,
Political Economya
Dissertation Committee: Dr. Matthew Lebo (chair), Dr. Helmut Norpoth,
Dr. Jeffrey Segal,
Dr. Janet Box-Steffensmeier
M.A.,
University of Georgia, Political Science,
2007.
Thesis:
"Think Locally, Vote Locally: An
Examination of Voter
Behavior in Open Primaries and General Elections in
Athens-Clarke County."
Advisory Committee: Dr. Arnold Fleischmann (major professor), Dr.
Paul-Henri Gurian, Dr. Damon Cann
A.B.,
Georgetown University, Government and
Women's Studies, 2004.
Thesis:
"We Don't Get Written About: Women in
the Birmingham Civil Rights Movement."
Advisor: Dr. Leona Fisher
Research
and Teaching Interests
Political
Methodology
and Time Series
Public Opinion, Voting Behavior, and American Elections
Political Institutions and Judicial Politics
Honors
and Awards
Milton
Lodge Award for Graduate Student with
Outstanding Potential, Stony Brook University, 2011.
Political
Science Graduate Student Teaching
Award, Stony Brook University, 2011.
Political
Methodology Summer Meeting Fellowship,
2011.
Department
of Political Science Graduate
Assistantship, Stony Brook University, 2007-present.
Presidential
Fellowship, Stony Brook University,
2007-2010.
Graduate
Dean's Fellowship for Professional
Activities Award, Stony Brook University, 2009.
Outstanding
Teaching Assistant Award, University
of Georgia, 2007.
School
of Public and International Affairs
Teaching Assistantship, University of Georgia, 2005-2007.
Dissertation Summary
My dissertation uses multivariate GARCH models to addresses several
overlapping research questions. First, what effect does media coverage
of the president and the economy have on the electorate’s
evaluations of the president’s job performance?
Building
upon this analysis, I then address the role political evaluations and
media coverage play in determining the stability of consumer
confidence. I conclude by showing presidential approval has a
significant effect on both the level and stability of the macroeconomy
even when controlling for objective economic indicators and consumer
sentiment.
Papers
Under Review and Working Papers
"The Politics of Scandals:
The Case of Supreme Court Nominations, 1877-2010" with Charles Cameron
and Jeffrey Segal. (Under
review at the Journal
of Politics)
We
argue that when a nominee's opponents control the
Supreme Court nomination process, they often delay it in the hope of
uncovering a scandal. If a scandal is discovered, they
further
delay the process in order to
exploit the scandal and damage the nominee's prospects of
confirmation.
"The Electoral Costs of Party Loyalty in the House and Senate" in Strategic Party Government
by
Matthew Lebo and Gregory Koger. (Book chapter in
completed manuscript)
As leaders
search for support in
key Congressional votes, the level of electoral safety that a
legislator has is a good determinant of how likely they are to support
the party. Using a two-stage least-squares panel data estimator with
fixed effects and instrumental variables, we find that Senators and
House members are punished electorally for as party unity increases and
members of Congress strategically adjust their level of party unity
according to their degree of electoral security.
"The Political Economy: Political Determinants of the Macroeconomy."
(Under review at the
American
Political Science Review)
Although much
attention has been
paid to the role economic conditions play in political evaluations,
little attention has been devoted to the role politics plays in
explaining changes in the macroeconomy. I argue that in order to fully
explain changes in the macroeconomy, one needs to incorporate
politics---specifically presidential approval, media coverage, and
political events---in addition to variables typically employed by
economists.
"Large Scale Online Text Analysis Using Lydia." (In preparation for
submission)
This paper
introduces the Lydia
system and its method of collecting and classifying entities, describes
each phase of the process, and presents a practical application of the
system for political scientists by examining the value of the Lydia
system in predicting presidential approval. I find media
coverage
of the president and economy affects not just how approval rises and
falls but also how it expands and contracts.
"The Causes and Consequences of Instability in Consumer Sentiment."
(Data
analysis)
The level of
consumer sentiment
is affected by both economic conditions and political evaluations, but
what factors affect sentiment volatility? Furthermore, what
are
political consequences of instability in economic evaluations?
"Pink Slips and Policy Preferences: An Examination of the Effects of
the Economy on Supreme Court Voting." (Working paper)
I use a random
coefficient model
of individual justices' votes on the merits in labor cases to determine
the extent to which economic conditions affect judicial decision
making. As economic conditions worsen, conservative justices
vote
more liberally, sacrificing their preferred policy in favor of more
advantageous public policy.
"Approval Gaps and Partisan Polarization in the American Electorate"
with Matthew Lebo, Heather Ondercin, and Christopher Weber. (Working
paper)
What are the
long- and short-term
forces that explain partisan polarization within the American
electorate? We look at several important cleavages within the
electorate and how the various groups respond to different economic and
political factors over time in evaluating the president.
"The (De)Mobilizing Effects of Negative Advertising" with Wendy Gross.
(Working paper)
We extend the
analysis of
advertising and election outcomes by exploring the effects of timing,
tone, and exposure to negative television advertising on split-ticket
voting in U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races. We also model
the
factors that increase the number of attack ads aired in each campaign.
"The Persistence of the Sexuality Gap" with Wendy Gross. (Data
collection and analysis)
While there is
general agreement
that the LGBT community is more liberal than the general population,
academic research has relied on samples that are small in size,
non-representative, or exclusive to the LGBT community, effectively
restricting the inferential power. Utilizing a nationally
representative sample of 30,000 adults, including approximately 3,000
self-identified LGBT individuals, we explore whether a
“sexual
identity gap” is the result of differences in traditional
political predictors or whether it persists after accounting for these
variables.
"Why Do Individuals Comply with Informal Institutions?" with Martijn
Schoonvelde. (Working
paper)
Applying
theories of cooperation
to a variety of informal institutions including judicial review and
prime minister selection, we explain why informal political
institutions shape our behavior in ways that could be costly to
individuals.
"Choice of Party Ballot in Open Primaries Under Changing Rules: A
Quasi-Experiment" with Arnold Fleischmann and Damon Cann. (In
preparation for submission)
We
analyze a
heavily Democratic
county's open primaries both before and after most local elections
became nonpartisan and were removed from primary ballots to study the
effect of electoral systems and competition on voter
participation. Competition for local offices, rather than
federal
or statewide offices, is major determinant of Republican or Democratic
ballot choice and the removal of local offices from the primary ballot
has a positive effect on the likelihood that a voter would choose a
Republican ballot.
Conference Papers and Posters
"The
Causes and Consequences of Instability in Consumer Sentiment." Annual
Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Assocation, Chicago, IL April
2012.
"The
Political Economy: Political Determinants
of the Macroeconomy." Annual Society of
Political Methodology Summer Meeting, Princeton, NJ July 2011.
"Approval
Gaps and Partisan Polarization in the
American Electorate, 1968--2008" (with Matthew Lebo, Heather Ondercin,
and Christopher Weber). Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science
Association, Chicago, IL April 2011.
"The
Effect of Politics and
Public Opinion on Consumer Behavior.” Annual Meeting of the
Midwest
Political Science Association, Chicago, IL April 2011.
"The
Dynamic Relationship
Between Media Sentiment and Presidential Approval.” Annual
Meeting of
the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL April 2011.
"The
Politics of Scandal"
(with Jeffrey Segal and Charles Cameron). Annual Meeting of the
American Political Science Association, Washington, DC September 2010.
"Large Scale Online Text
Analysis Using Lydia" (with Leonie Huddy, Matthew Lebo, and Steven
Skiena). Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association,
Washington, DC September 2010.
"The
Marks v. United States Narrowest
Grounds Holding: Is it as
Flawed Empirically as it is Doctrinally?" (with Jeffrey
Segal).
Annual Meeting of the Law and Society Association, Chicago IL May 2010.
"Pink
Slips and Policy
Preferences: An Examination of the Effects of Changes in the
Unemployment Rate on Labor Cases." Annual Meeting of the Midwest
Political Science Association, Chicago, IL April 2010.
"The
Impact of Diplomatic
and Economic Intervention on Repression after Civil War" (with Cynthia
McMeekin). Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, New
Orleans, LA February 2010.
"How Low Can You Go?
Modeling the Amount of
Negative Advertisements in Campaigns" (with Wendy Gross). Annual
Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, LA
January 2009.
"A New
Twist: Negative
Campaigning and Split-Ticket Voting in
Congressional and Gubernatorial Elections" (with Wendy Gross). Annual
Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, MA
August 2008.
"Fail to
the Chief: The
Effect of Failed Presidential Primary Bids on Congressional Reelection
Campaigns" (with Elizabeth Coggins and Cynthia McMeekin). Annual
Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, LA
January 2008.
"State
vs. Local
Influences on Turnout and Rolloff in an Open Primary" (with Arnold
Fleischmann and Damon Cann). Annual Meeting of the American Political
Science Association, Chicago, IL September 2007.
"A New
Game in Town:
Rules Changes and Voting in an Open Primary" (with Arnold Fleischmann
and Damon Cann). Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science
Association, Chicago, IL April 2007.
"Problem-Solving Courts:
Patterns and Effectiveness." (with Brian Levey, John Newton, and Wendy
Gross). Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association,
New Orleans, LA January 2007.
"Framing the Public
Debate: Gays and Lesbians vs. Homosexuals" (with Adam Fowler and Brian
Levey). Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association,
Philadelphia, PA September 2006.
Teaching
Experience
Stony Brook University,
Instructor of Record
POL 325: "Civil Liberties and Civil Rights"
Fall 2009, Fall 2010, Spring 2011, Spring 2012
POL 102:
"Introduction to American Government"
Summer
2008, Summer 2010, Summer 2011, Fall 2011
Stony
Brook University, Teaching Assistant
SOC 201: "Research Methods
in Sociology"
Spring 2009 (Ivan Chase)
POL 402: "Political Economy: Government and Market Failures"
Spring
2008 (Rene Lindstädt)
POL 502:
"Intermediate Statistics for Public
Policy," Graduate level
Spring
2008 (Rene Lindstädt)
University
of Georgia, Teaching Assistant
POLS 1101: "Introduction to American Government"
Fall
2005 (Paul Gurian)
Spring 2006 (Jamie Carson)
Fall 2006 (Paul Gurian), Lead
TA
Spring
2007 (John
Maltese), Lead TA
Research
Experience
Stony
Brook
University, Research Assistant
Jeffrey Segal: Fall 2008, Summer 2009, Spring 2010, Summer 2011
Matthew Lebo: Fall 2008, Summer 2009, Spring 2010, Summer 2010, Summer
2011
Helmut Norpoth: Summer 2009
Rene Lindstädt: Spring 2008
Joel Simmons: Fall 2007, Summer 2008
Public
and
Professional Service
Faculty Mentor, New York
Redistricting Project, 2011.
Intel Talent Search Advisor (for
Laura Kirsch), 2010.
Interviewer
for the Georgetown University Alumni Admissions Program, 2010-present.
Guest
Lecturer on the politics of abortion for WST 401 "Maternal and Fetal
Medicine," March 2010.
Invited Panel Member for
GRSC 7770 "Introduction to Teaching Political Science," September 2006.
Researcher for the UGA Survey Research Center and Georgia Secretary of
State, November 2006.
Work
Experience
Women's
Campaign Fund, Washington, DC
Development
Intern, Spring 2004.
Women's
Campaign Research Fund, Washington, DC
Political
Intern, Spring 2004.
Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee,
Washington, DC
Development
Intern, Fall 2002.
References
Teaching
evaluations available upon request.
Dr.
Matthew Lebo
Department of Political Science
Stony Brook University
SBS 7th Floor
Stony Brook, NY 11794
631-632-7554
matthew.lebo[at]sunysb.edu
Dr.
Jeffery Segal
Department of Political Science
Stony Brook University
SBS 7th Floor
Stony Brook, NY 11794
631-632-7662
jeffrey.segal[at]sunysb.edu
Dr.
Helmut Norpoth
Department of Political Science
Stony Brook University
SBS 7th Floor
Stony Brook, NY 11794
631-632-7640
helmut.norpoth[at]stonybrook.edu
Dr. Stanley Feldman
Department of Political Science
Stony Brook University
SBS 7th Floor
Stony Brook, NY 11794
631-632-9761
stanley.feldman[at]sunysb.edu
Dr.
Janet
Box-Steffensmeier
Department of Political Science
Ohio State University
Columbus, Ohio 43210-1373
614-292-9642
steffensmeier[at]osu.edu
Dr.
Arnold Fleischmann
Department of Political Science
Eastern Michigan University
1012 Hoyt
Ypsilanti, MI 48197
734-487-3113
afleisch[at]emich.edu